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With global interest rates at all time lows, central banks have now started a process of "quantitative easing" - a euphemism for printing money.  South Africa remains relatively slow in reducing interest rates in comparison to other countries. The MPC will announce the rate change on the 30th April and the consensus is for a drop of 1% to a repo rate of 8,5%. Banks' prime lending rate should drop to 12%.
The repo rate has been slashed back dramatically from a recent peak of 12% in June 2008 to its current 7,5%. The expectation at the end of June was for a further 0,5% cut but this was not to be. We have now possibly seen the last of the rate cuts - a full 4,5% over the last 6 months. The failure to cut rates again was surprising, but inflation remains on the high end.
As was widely anticipated interest rates in South Africa dropped by 1% with the repo falling to 8,5% and prime rate to 12%. The next meeting is on 28 May and the interest rate is likely to decline by a further 0,5% to 8%. The following rate decision will be in June, which at that stage there is also likely to be a further rate drop by 0,5% taking the repo rate to 7,5% and near its lows. Prime will move to 11%.
The repo rate is at 7% - remaining unchanged at the September meeting. Domestic interest rates have probably bottomed - but this is not a definite. The August headline production inflation came in at negative 4% year on year. While declining imported producer price inflation will lower inflation, the stickier problem for local inflation is service prices, which are excluded from PPI stats.